I would like to say the chart helps, but in my case it makes no difference. It is basically the same as what I have from Las Vegas. The challenge at least in my belief is CW has the algorithm set so much in their favor. It is almost normal for the dealer to draw 5 and 6 card 21 with a 5 or 6 showing. Then the next hand the dealer gets a BL. So 10 hands lost quickly.
I get 4 20’s and a 19 I know the dealer will end up with a 21 to beat them all.
Then when I get low card totals (anything below a 17) it is 85-90% of the time that the card dealt to me is a 10 value for a bust. Then when I hope to get a five card draw automatic winner (like the dealer does regularly), my 5th card invariably is a 10 for a bust.
I have even left the game when the odds are going against me, come back later and it has not changed. That is not to say I have not won at times because I have and it has helped me increase my coin totals, but it also has set me back more often. I just can’t stay away from the potential which is my fault.
100% agree with you PB - best a game left alone is my experience. Although I have had the pleasure of seeing the dealer give herself a 7-card 21 on multiple occasions ( 0.0000234897% probability!) not something you’re likely to see outside of Casino World, esecially with such regularity.
While following the basic strategy and the like, what I have found of late is a trend where my hands lost are much greater when placing large wagers than smaller ones…the number of times the dealer will draw to a 21 is almost unbelievable. Is it the single player room (Hula specifically) or just simple bad luck of mine? Has anyone experienced the same?
Yes. I have seen the same ratio of losing hands as you describe on large sum bets. It is unbelievable how often the dealer can draw to 21. Just a little while ago, I had hands of 19, 20, 20, 19 , 20 and the dealer had a 5 showing. Low and behold, they drew a 5 card 21. More than the law of averages would suggest. I only play in the Classic single room.
Help @Elanor, and in reply to @PB234 . I have been using Elanor’s BJ chart and was doing quite well with it until about a week ago. Looks like CW may have tweaked their algorithm regarding the dealer showing a low card from 2-6. Elanor, your chart says in most cases you should stand if your first two cards total 12-16, which I believe is based on the fact that the dealer will bust most of the time. However, lately she is hardly ever busting with 2-6 and generally ends up somewhere between 17-21. Is this a new CW trend or something I should just ignore and continue following the recommendations on your chart? Awaiting your advice and ty in advance
The table is based on a random 3 deck game. I am still winning with it overall, but there are going to be bad streaks. If CW changed the algorithm to make you lose, it would show up in my totals. But if you play a lot, outliers will happen, meaning you could have a streak where you lose 10B… or win 10B
LMAO - outliers? There are a lot of constants that happen on this site that if they are truely legit are staggering as to statistical probability of occurance.
@Elanor, thank you for your explanation. I’m happy that you’re continuing to monitor as you play, so you can let us know if anything does change. I understand there will be outlier times when we can do everything “right” and still lose, as well as times when we win. That’s called gambling, folks Appreciate you sharing your knowledge, research and advice with us.
Explanation of outliers: At the top of the post I put a 5 sigma (standard deviation) table. Anything more than 3 standard deviations from the mean can be considered an extreme event outlier. The chance of getting 3 sigma below the mean is 0.003. The chance of getting 5 sigma below the mean is about 0.0000005.
For example you play 50 rounds of 5x50M Blackjack. There is a 0.003 chance you will lose 3.743B or more. If you play 1000 rounds, there is a 0.003 chance you could lose 8.974B or more. But if you play 5000 hands 3sigma below the mean is a positive 7.574B. The law of large numbers is your friend when you have a positive expected value in a game.
If you a lot of blackjack, like I do, you will experience streaks of large losses and streak of large wins. But in the long run, you win.
I would REALLY like to know CW’s explanation on this one: I commented before it seems unsettling in blackjack that the challenge reward would be paid BEFORE all hands were played. Again this morning, the challenge was “MAKE 1000000 COINS IN BLACK JACK”. I was playing 5 hands at 50mil per. My 2nd hand was two face cards for 20, so I stayed on that hand - 3 left to play. The challenge box displayed “CHALLENGE COMPLETE” even though there were 3 hands I was holding, plus the dealer’s hand left to play.
How did the game already know what the dealer was going to pull? I could have hit/stayed on the remaining 3 hands and if it is an actual deck of cards in a fair game, there would be no way for the game to predict what I would play next, making it impossioble to know what the dealer’s play would be.
I would love to hear theories on this one!
I am not sure I am following your math, or your love for blackjack.
5000 hands x 50,000,000 coins is 250,000,000,000 coins wagered to win 7,574,000,000 coins.
I assume you’re not counting the value of gems, but still…that is a very low payout.
I play a lot of slots. Mostly “Vegas Baby”. I average a profit of over 5,000,000 coins on every 10,000,000 coins wagered. (Meaning 15,000,000 coins won on average, every spin.)
So if I played 25,000 spins (wagering the same 250,000,000,000 coins) I would have an expected profit of 125,000,000,000 coins. YES, that includes payouts from charms (Nectars and Unicorns).
So have you ever calculated how much you actually win / lose per hand, including charms?
You are comparing my calculation based on expected value WITHOUT charms to how much you made on Vegas Baby WITH charms. This is a false equivalency. Your charms have the same value no matter how you cash them in. The best strategy is to play the game that gives you the best additional value based on game odds.
Vegas Baby has maybe a 3% house advantage compared to a 4% player advantage in blackjack.
So if you wager 1 Billion coins on Vegas Baby, you are losing on average 30 Million not counting charms. On Blackjack I am making 40 Million on average. If we cashed in the exact same charms, I am 70 Million ahead on average.
Also the large charms cash in very quickly in Blackjack. Recently I waited until I had about 5000 Unicorns and over 100 of the big charms (luckiest 7, mystic ruby) and needed 35 Billion to get next crown level. I got a little lucky in Blackjack and finished in about 20 minutes, still having 1500 Unicorns.
When you place a “Bet” on a Game here on CW, The “Outcome” is determined at that “Instant of Time”? Everything you see here is Maybe? 1Sec behind? Since this is an “Online Game” I appreciate this!
Example… I get a 10M DragonMahjong Board. CW take the Chips when I “BET”! I load my Charms and Start Playing, Matching Tiles! All this Time CW Paying. Then, My Power at Home goes OUT! Well Guess What? When My Power comes back and I get Back on CW, I get a Message from CW “Refunding” those 10M Chips! I LOVE CW!
To me, The Obvious Answer to your Question… And the Thesis of your Topic…
The Dealer had a “PAT Hand” and did not have to Hit!
That means the Dealer had a 17,18,19 or 20 for you to WIN on your Bet? You Completed your Challenge on your 2nd Hand with 2 FaceCards and if you LOST your Connection to the game at that EXACT TIME, You would Recive Credit for that Challenge and the Coins you WON!
CW is “FAIR”! And Smart too, LOL! Live and Learn! Have FUN!!!
So you are saying (through the tangle of oddly placed quotation marks and capitalized words) that somehow the game knows what cards were going to get pulled on my remaining 3 hands? And that makes CW “smart”? LOL - ok then. I think the fact the game knew it was going to bust while the cards were stil in play suggest something far different, but nice to see those rose-colored glasses are working nicely.
If I had lost connection at that time, I would have had my coins returned to me, yes. But from a gaming perspective the fact they can know what play before the player is done pulling cards is impossible on straight game.
LOL, You said 5 hands at 50 mil per. That means you are making 5 individual bets against the Dealers 1 Hand. And you are right “there is no way for game to predict what you will play next”! But, if the Dealer has a pat hand (17, 18, 19, 20) she will not have to Hit or Pull as you should know! As a result the Outcome of each of your hands Can Be Known immediately upon completion! When you had 2 Face Cards, Selected NO to Split and STAND the Hand/Bet was COMPLETE! You at least tied the dealer and your payout for that 50 mil hand was well over you Challenge Amount!
You asked for theories and this is mine! If yours is that CW is not Fair and Cheating you, why did you even ask?
The game, if played properly, has an EXPECTED gain of about 4%. So when I play 250 (5x50) I expect to make 10M.
However, one round of the game also has a standard deviation (sigma) of about about 200M, meaning you will have big winning streaks and big losing streaks. Fortunately math also says the more you play, the more likely you are to make the expected value (the Law of Large Numbers and The Central Theorem.) In my original post above I created a 5 sigma table, which shows the most extreme events based on rounds played. I experienced a -4 sigma event once and lost 15B over 1000 rounds. It happens, but 95% of the time, your return is between -2 and +2 sigma.
I trust the math and the results show it. I’ve played over 200,000 rounds of BJ and made about 2 Trillion coins. I have about 3T total now due to chest/city collections and cashing charms.
Thank you Steve and Elanor. I will never dispute the math, but I will say that CW’s algos/programming know what to look out for, and for those that may not have the long run game in them, folks should proceed with caution, and never bet what they cannot afford to lose. I think math could also prove what I’m saying, especially when betting large, the outcomes are usually more negative for me than positive. Of course, we have the bailout option in refreshing our browser if we don’t like what we see. Even then, on a large betted hand/hands, and the dealer showing more higher probabilistic bust hands, the house seems to find an uncanny way to win. Again, I’m speaking more from the short run standpoint. Having said all of that, why not play a game such as Sparkplug or better yet, Dragon Mahjong to obtain a no lost hand? To each his/her own of course, but as @SteveSunset has said in the past, why not play with almost guaranteed wins instead of not?
I LOVE CW! 
