I would like to say the chart helps, but in my case it makes no difference. It is basically the same as what I have from Las Vegas. The challenge at least in my belief is CW has the algorithm set so much in their favor. It is almost normal for the dealer to draw 5 and 6 card 21 with a 5 or 6 showing. Then the next hand the dealer gets a BL. So 10 hands lost quickly.
I get 4 20’s and a 19 I know the dealer will end up with a 21 to beat them all.
Then when I get low card totals (anything below a 17) it is 85-90% of the time that the card dealt to me is a 10 value for a bust. Then when I hope to get a five card draw automatic winner (like the dealer does regularly), my 5th card invariably is a 10 for a bust.
I have even left the game when the odds are going against me, come back later and it has not changed. That is not to say I have not won at times because I have and it has helped me increase my coin totals, but it also has set me back more often. I just can’t stay away from the potential which is my fault.
100% agree with you PB - best a game left alone is my experience. Although I have had the pleasure of seeing the dealer give herself a 7-card 21 on multiple occasions ( 0.0000234897% probability!) not something you’re likely to see outside of Casino World, esecially with such regularity.
While following the basic strategy and the like, what I have found of late is a trend where my hands lost are much greater when placing large wagers than smaller ones…the number of times the dealer will draw to a 21 is almost unbelievable. Is it the single player room (Hula specifically) or just simple bad luck of mine? Has anyone experienced the same?
Yes. I have seen the same ratio of losing hands as you describe on large sum bets. It is unbelievable how often the dealer can draw to 21. Just a little while ago, I had hands of 19, 20, 20, 19 , 20 and the dealer had a 5 showing. Low and behold, they drew a 5 card 21. More than the law of averages would suggest. I only play in the Classic single room.
Help @Elanor, and in reply to @PB234 . I have been using Elanor’s BJ chart and was doing quite well with it until about a week ago. Looks like CW may have tweaked their algorithm regarding the dealer showing a low card from 2-6. Elanor, your chart says in most cases you should stand if your first two cards total 12-16, which I believe is based on the fact that the dealer will bust most of the time. However, lately she is hardly ever busting with 2-6 and generally ends up somewhere between 17-21. Is this a new CW trend or something I should just ignore and continue following the recommendations on your chart? Awaiting your advice and ty in advance
The table is based on a random 3 deck game. I am still winning with it overall, but there are going to be bad streaks. If CW changed the algorithm to make you lose, it would show up in my totals. But if you play a lot, outliers will happen, meaning you could have a streak where you lose 10B… or win 10B
LMAO - outliers? There are a lot of constants that happen on this site that if they are truely legit are staggering as to statistical probability of occurance.
@Elanor, thank you for your explanation. I’m happy that you’re continuing to monitor as you play, so you can let us know if anything does change. I understand there will be outlier times when we can do everything “right” and still lose, as well as times when we win. That’s called gambling, folks Appreciate you sharing your knowledge, research and advice with us.
Explanation of outliers: At the top of the post I put a 5 sigma (standard deviation) table. Anything more than 3 standard deviations from the mean can be considered an extreme event outlier. The chance of getting 3 sigma below the mean is 0.003. The chance of getting 5 sigma below the mean is about 0.0000005.
For example you play 50 rounds of 5x50M Blackjack. There is a 0.003 chance you will lose 3.743B or more. If you play 1000 rounds, there is a 0.003 chance you could lose 8.974B or more. But if you play 5000 hands 3sigma below the mean is a positive 7.574B. The law of large numbers is your friend when you have a positive expected value in a game.
If you a lot of blackjack, like I do, you will experience streaks of large losses and streak of large wins. But in the long run, you win.
So had to “play” Blackjack this morning, and it is a bit unsettling that before all the cards are drawn, it can tell if the acheivement is accomplished or not… Confirms my suspicions LOL
